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ABC’s favorite reality show is nearly back, and if you’ve been following The Bachelor spoilers, you know how things are expected to end.

But some fans have a different theory about who Arie picks on the Bachelor this coming season, and it’s worth hearing out.

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(ABC)

These fans are setting aside rumors and reports, and trying to figure out Arie Luyendyk Jr.’s choice by using math. They might be onto something.

We’ve already met all of the women competing for Arie Luyendyk Jr. on The Bachelor‘s 22nd season.

And while reports about the rumored winner sound reliable (we’ll get into that later), like a third of the fun of watching The Bachelor is trying to work out the winner for yourself.

(The messes, the feuds, the romances, the torn feelings, the hometown dates, the Bachelor Nation responses on Twitter, guessing who’ll make it to Bachelor in Paradise, figuring out who’s a hopeless romantic and who’s just there for branding, … there are a lot of fun things about this franchise, folks)

So, what are fans using to figure out the winner before the series even begins to air?

Math.

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Because, as we’ve mentioned before, of the 29 contestants vying for Arie Luyendyk Jr.’s "heart," 4 of them are named Lauren.

Four.

That’s about 14%. That’s absurd, even for a common name.

Anyway, they figure that the odds are pretty good that it’ll be one of the Laurens. But which one?

Let’s take a look.

Lauren Burnham is known officially as Lauren B.

If you already know Arie Luyendyk Jr.’s final four, you know that Lauren makes it that far.

It’s easy to see why — she’s gorgeous.

The Bachelor: Lauren G
(ABC)

(And some superstitious folks think that every Lauren B. might be charmed, after Lauren Bushnell)

Lauren’s a 25-year-old who works in tech sales. And, while we’re being superstitious, she’s from Dallas. Dallas girls tend to make an impression with the Bachelor Nation.

But she’s only one of the Laurens.

Lauren G — Lauren Griffin — is a 25-year-old executive recruiter from L.A.

Now, smart money says that Arie Luyendyk Jr. hasn’t suddenly developed the heart of a Disney prince and a desire to fall in love for the entertainment of ABC’s viewers.

It’s widely believed that Arie’s just looking to build his brand, which is one of many factors that made the Bachelor Nation so bewildered when showrunners selected him to play the leading man.

(Yes, we are still talking about that)

The Bachelor: Lauren J
(ABC)

So, if Arie’s looking to network, Lauren might be able to help him out a lot with that.

Unfortunately, there’s only so much that we know about the Laurens … so far.

Lauren Jarreau is 33, which isn’t "old" but it would make her closer to Arie Luyendyk Jr.’s age than her fellow Laurens, for sure.

Some think that perhaps Arie has had his fill of pretty young thangs and would be interested in a recent graduate of a Masters program who’s closer to his age.

(But, yeah, she’s not only the eldest Lauren but also the eldest contestant this season, which … will probably come up more times than she’d like)

Lauren J. didn’t have a job listed when ABC released everyone’s names and portraits. Which is fine — she just finished a Masters program — but might not be as exciting to Arie.

The Bachelor: Lauren S
(ABC)

Lauren Schleyer is a 31-year-old social media manager from Dallas.

Yes, another Lauren from Dallas. In one season.

(Honestly, how did the higher ups at ABC not put their foot down?)

There are, for the record, also two "Britneys" (one Brittnay and one Brittane) and two "Rebeccas" (one being Becca and the other being Rebekah).

So … if you want to not get totally lost when the season airs, you might want to start memorizing names and faces now.

Now, we’ve already heard who wins Arie Luyendyk Jr. at the end of the season.

While it’s a report, and reports can be wrong, many feel that Reality Steve getting sued is an indication that these reports are the real deal.

But you never know.